Being I had good feedback from my last post from the Ultra Street Fighter 4: 2015 Tournament Analysis, I figured another one should be in order with some predictions on next match placements for Daigo, Momochi, Kazunoko and Tokido.
EventHubs Driven Data
Before I go into the predictions, let me clarify the data being used. All data used for these predictions were provided by EventHubs. The data only entails results when a player places particularly high in a given tournament rather than placing particularly low. That means if a player get’s dead last place in a tournament of 200 people, EventHubs is not likely to report on the result and therefore not likely to be in my data set.
So, I’m not working with the full holistic picture of how players are doing on their good days or really, really bad days. But, it’s better than nothing and these predictions should at least give you a good understanding of what may happen next.
I won’t bore you too much on the complexities of the algorithms used for my predictions, but I will note them for reference. I used a ARTXP algorithm and ARIMA algorithm. The tool used to run these algorithms uses each algorithm separately to train the model and then blends the results to yield the best prediction for a variable number of predictions.
Daigo Umehara Predictions
My first prediction is with Daigo Umehara. I used his past tournament history from 2014 to 2015 in Ultra Street Fighter IV to predict his next placements in the future. Each date on the chart represents a major tournament like CEO, Final Round, Evolution and so forth with the actual placements Daigo Umehara achieved.
Being I did this prediction with a few other players at the same time, I ran into some issues where some of those players did not compete in the same tournaments. Thus, gaps in the data are apparent because not every player, including Daigo, attends every major tournament in the world.
I closed this gap by including all major tournament dates regardless if the player attended or not. I simply copied over the previous tournament placement the player did attend over to the next tournament where the player didn’t attend. In Daigo’s case, you will see on 6/26/2015 that he placed 17th twice. This is because he attended the event on 6/26, but not the next tournament in 7/13.
My prediction for Daigo is that he will place between 9th or 12th in his next tournament. Being he has made good strives this year with great gains tournament-over-tournament, he will also likely trend in more top 8 results going forward.
Looking at Tokido, he has an interesting history in results. He had a pretty harsh Evo 2014 with Daigo and then had another bad placement with 25th at Final Round in 2015.
My prediction for Tokido is between 5th and 8th place in his next tournaments going forward. Unfortunately, this analysis shows a huge increase in placement therefore after in his prediction steps. This has Tokido jumping up 29th place and then 44th place in the next tournaments after that.
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Taking a peek at Kazunoko, he has been performing quite nicely over the past year. He has been consistently good and will likely continue to be consistently good. Not much more can be said about Kazunoko’s performance except fear the day you have to go through him in order to get to top 8 in Ultra Street Fighter IV.
My predictions for Kazunoko is his continued success in achieving between 7th and 9th place in his new tournament. The algorithm has him improving over time between 3rd and 6th place with a slight decrease in placement to end.
Momochi, our Evolution 2015 Ultra Street Fighter IV champion, has also had a good year in tournament placements. Similar to Daigo, he didn’t make it out to every tournament, but he did attend a lot this year in both Europe and North America. Momochi has consistently placed high and will likely continue to dominate the street fighter scene.
My predictions for Momochi is similar to Kazunoko. He will have continued success with achieving between 2nd and 4th in his next tournament with a decline to 4th and 5th place therefore after.
Looking at the players holistically, you can see they how they compare to one another going forward. Momochi will continue to dominate over these players, but could be stopped dead in his tracks by Kazunoko. Daigo and Tokido will likely continue to place on the edges of top 8 and beyond with a bad game here or there for the two if their unlucky.