Famine's Domain

Famine's Domain

Developer / Street Fighter / Beast

Ultra Street Fighter 4: 2015 Tournament Analysis

It’s been a long time since I’ve updated the old blog. Today, I wanted to share some analysis that I did on Ultra Street Fighter 4 with the major tournaments and players who competed in those tournaments leading up to Evolution 2015.

That being said, I wanted to toss out a small disclaimer before you read my analysis going forward. Everything in this post was collected from the good people at EventHubs. While I’m confident in the accuracy of the data reporting, there are still holes in the data simply because EventHubs as well other fighting game media sites do not report on all tournament placements for all tournament competitors.

Nonetheless, I collected as much data as I could (bearing in mind, my wife just gave birth to our second son on Tuesday, July 21st, 2015) and had some fun. I’m no data wizard, but I can do some cool things with data here and then.

Average Placement Value (APV)

Before diving right into the analysis, I wanted to explain with Average Placement Value (APV) is and why I used it so much in the following graphs that you’re about to review.

This is simply the average placement a competitive player may have over the course of his or her competitive career. To put it simply, I take the total placements a given player achieved over all the tournaments he or she played and then I divide that total among the total number of tournaments he or she entered. If the player is consistently placing in Top 8, then that average value is going to be low where poor performing players will have high average values.

Low is good, high is bad. Yet, not having all the data skews these averages, hence the disclaimer at the top.

Why do I use the Average Placement Value (APV)? It just helps paint a better holistic picture of how that player has performed when factoring in all the tournaments he or she entered. It also helps me alter that average depending on how certain variables like other players, location and so forth impact that players average placement.

Top 50 Ultra Street Fighter IV Players

Top 50 Ultra Street Fighter IV PlayersThe first analysis I did was simply to find the Top 50 Average Placement Value (APV) and total tournaments entered for all players in Ultra Street Fighter IV.

Right off the bat, you can see how the result from this analysis shows certain players with low APV who did not have a high tournament entry amount and or did not place high in the amount of tournaments they entered. This is not exactly an accurate depiction of the top players in order, but it does show who those top players may be.

Based on tournaments entered, Momochi is likely the prime candidate we want to hone in on along with Kazunoko, Snake Eyez, Pepeday, Bonchan and more. These are the top players who are consistently entering tournaments and consistently placing high in the tournaments they enter.

Top 50 Ultra Street Fighter IV Players (> 1 Tournament)

Top 50 Ultra Street Fighter IV Players (>1 Tournament)

Using the same analysis as before, we can refine the results down to only players who entered more than one (> 1) tournament and who are within that Top 50 Average Placement Value (APV) result set.

We can see our results are more reasonable on who the top players are and how they are also CONSISTENTLY doing well. We know this right off the bat because our current USF4 Evolution 2015 champion is no. 1 in these results. Momochi has consistently placed high in a number of tournaments and it’s reflected in this analysis.

Other top players include Kazunoko, Snake Eyez, Pepeday, Bonchan, Xian, Mago and even 801 Strider (in that order). These guys have consistently performed well, at least as much as our data allows us to see, over the course of many tournaments from CEO to Final Round to even Shadowloo.

(Note: Remember, EventHubs does not report all placements for all tournaments. They only report on top 50 or lower.)

Momochi versus GamerBee

USF4_Momochi_vs_GamerBee

The next analysis is between Momochi and GamerBee. These two amazing competitors met at the grand finals at Evolution 2015 in Ultra Street Fighter IV.

Unfortunately, Momochi ran into some uncontrollable issues that paused the match and made some question whether or not he should have won the match against GamerBee and (spoiler alert) first place at Evolution 2015.

My analysis shows a great trend in both players consistency to win. Momochi has put in the work just as GamerBee has over the past year and some months with Ultra Street Fighter IV. There is no doubt they are both consistently placing high to a point that it’s not a matter of opinion, but a fact that either one of these players deserved first place at Evo.

That being said, I did call out some problems that GamerBee faced over the year that made his performance (APV) lower than Momochi’s when looking at both players holistically. GamerBee faced some demons of his own against Tokido and Infiltration at both Final Round and CEO.

Regardless of a couple of bad placings, or at least bad to their standards, awesome for scrubs like me. GamerBee overcame those demons at Evolution 2015. He defeated both Tokido and Infiltration among beasts such as Daigo, NuckleDu and Pepeday.

GamerBee’s Difficult Path

Interestingly enough, if you were to look at the total Average Placement Values (APV) for all the players GamerBee defeated versus the same values for the ones Momochi had to defeate, GamerBee easily faced a harder line of fighters who consistently win. Unfortunately, it does not matter GamerBee actually defeated greater and more difficult players. All that matters is that he got to winner’s finals and how he performs in the last few matches.

Your pools and match-ups specified for you matter so much in these events. GamerBee saw the hard road he had to face and still succeeded beyond expectations.

Total APV Change

USF4_Total_APV_Change

My final analysis is to see the Average Placement Value (APV) change from tournament-to-tournament in the order they happen over time. The trick here is that Average Placement Value (APV) is only factoring in every tournament that happened up to that point in time and finding the difference in change from the last tournament in date of appearance the player may have or may not have entered.

This analysis helps me see the gains and losses in their averages over time regardless if those averages are high or low. If someone is placing 30th place and then jumps to 5th place the next tournament, this analysis is going to show a negative number, which means a positive gain.

(i.e.: Going from 10th place to 5th place equates to -50% change.)

I do this for every tournament in my database and then total them together to show how much gain or loss the player has made over the course of all tournaments. Negative is good, positive is bad once again.

Daigo showed that the most throughout the year. He went from 49th at Evolution 2014 last year to 5th place in 2015. This was a huge gain for him in example. Tokido, did the same with going from 33rd place to at Evolution to 4th place at SXSW.

KBrad on the other hand went from 13th place at CEO 2014 to 49th place at Evolution 2014 back up to 9th place TFC and Shadowloo to only fall back down to 17th place at Final Round and NCR. The analysis is clear that KBrad is not really being consistent, and after this years Evo results, has only increased the amount of loss he has endured.

But it’s not all right in the world. Smug is NOT showing good results in this analysis either. Looking at his data, he has consistently performed well, just had a bad event or two in the mix. If you were to drop just one of those tournaments, he would not have as bad of a score as others. Then again, like Momochi, he likely would not have had huge gains or losses either because some players just consistently trend the same every tournament without huge leaps from good to bad.

Glen 'Famine' Swan
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Glen 'Famine' Swan

Glen is a 8-year video game industry professional with over 10 AAA accredit titles under his belt. Currently, he is a practicing developer and data scientist within the digital marketing industry.
Glen 'Famine' Swan
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